A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
